Failed Banks and Failed Billions
by Bob Chapman
http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/
Re-flating a dying bubble, Greece and Euro problems fuel world markets, Lehman Bros collosal fraud, a plan to tax banks, bank failures amount to billions, signs of a vanishing recovery. Bubbles have a hard time coming to an end, especially in residential real estate. Underlying forces such as government intervention to prolong the agony and the abject stupidity of builders extends the bubbles. We are in a vast home inventory expansion and builders are going to build 535,000 new homes. The projected foreclosure rate could give us as much as a 3-year home inventory, up from present levels of about a year, if one includes the lenders shadow inventory. This past week the home building index rose 7.1% and it is up 25.1% year-to-date. The retail index rose 17% y-t-d, yet unemployment stubbornly clings to 22-1/8%. In fact, the retail index is up 87.4% y-o-y. We would say that index is grossly overpriced. As you can see bubbles have a way of not wanting to die quickly. This is caused by mans disparately wanting to cling to the past attempting to take the easy way out rather than adapting to change. Government tries to keep sections of the economy alive rather than letting the cleansing process take its course. The subsidization of the housing market is doomed to failure, because there simply isnt enough money and credit available to keep it going indefinitely. All government is doing is re-flating a dying bubble. These Socialistic/Marxist policies just wont work. Whether government likes it or not interest rates are headed higher, probably by 1% or more by the end of the year as government in its quest for more money to cover its debts crowds most others out of the market. This can be accommodated by the Fed, but not without higher inflation or perhaps hyperinflation, which in turn will drive interest rates even higher. We are seeing the reigniting of speculative mania in other markets as well in the stock market and particularly in the low quality sector of the bond market worldwide. The mis-pricing of investments and finance is resulting in terrible distortions, mostly the result of Fed and government policy.
This mania has been aided and abetted by US dollar strength, especially over the past two months. We saw JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup and others loading up on the long side of the dollar starting last October between USDX 74 and 78. They obviously knew the Greece episode was on the way. Irrespective, and in spite of no positive fundamentals, dollar strength was used to draw funds into dollar denominated assets. Supposedly the dollar has some sort of competitive advantage, which it doesnt, and that a strong dollar will be re-flationary, which it has been. Gold and silver should have been flying to the upside, but our government detests free markets and it again temporarily suppressed prices. This is the result of the machinations of Larry Summers and Tim Geither. Dollar strength has the perceived benefit of the Feds ability to endlessly create money and credit.
It is this perception added to Greece, European and euro problems that have fueled speculation in world markets. Perceptions are one thing, and fundamentals are another more powerful force, which in time will reassert themselves. Problems will first be evident in the bond markets, which have already begun. As soon as the 10-year T-note solidly crosses 4% the market, the dollar and bonds will falter. The current strength is perceived to be the weakness of other currencies and their economies, prospective re-flationary policies and the concept of too big to fail. This is why there is the concept that the current recovery will persist. They also recognize that individual euro zone countries cannot inflate their way out of problems. One currency prohibits that from happening. This means Greece and others cannot monetize their debt and that means any kind of recovery is years away. All 19 near bankrupt countries are in the same boat except the US. Markets believe in the Bernanke put or backstop. They also believe the Fed will reinflate again. They would rather have inflation or hyperinflation, which they can in part control, rather than deflation, which once it begins cannot be contained.
http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/Failed_Banks_and_Failed_Billions
Duration : 0:10:59
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I voted Obama I voted Obama but he didnt tell me that he was a clown. now instead of living in my 30 room mansion, I live under a bridge on the outskirts of town. my bussneiss is blown, they foreclosed my home. How was I persuaded to vote for this retard? If only Id voted for John a Sarah, Id be a homeowner with a dog and a yard….we’re Doomed! flipsrfun95
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They Say a Man should always Have a job and go to work. So why am I beggin’ for loose change and feeling like a jerk? Its all because Obama won the Presidentcy. Now Im Homeless sick and Dirty and feeling Hungry. Shoulda voted for Ron Paul or Palin and Mc Cain. Oh whyd I vote Obama I must have been insaine. I sleep under a bridge since they repossed my car. Oh whens the next election? I hope its not to far.
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